The Sober Reality for Clinton

There’s a fantastic article on Politico, commenting on the media’s failure to adequately report the harsh reality of Clinton’s delegate situation.

The reality is she really cannot win this nomination. The odds of it happening are minuscule. I can understand her hanging around waiting for Obama to implode in scandal, or have a heart attach or something, but I’m not sure why she needs to pull-down the party while she hangs around.

Consider:

  • Clinton would need between 63 and 65% of all remaining pledged delegates in order to win the majority of pledged delegates. She may win that big in some states (maybe, in some), but she’s not winning that margin of all remaining delegates.
  • If the superdelegates were to break ranks with the votes of the electorate, the party would simply collapse with ourtrage. So getting the superdelegates to override a majority of pledged delegates is also highly unlikely.

So why the hell is Clinton being so aggressive? Could it be, per my post of a couple of weeks ago, that she plans to trash his candidacy and then step in and claim that he can’t win because his candidacy has been trashed? Does she have some secret, surprise cache of as-yet undeclared superdelegates she’s sitting on, to announce after a big win in Pennsylvania?

No. My theory is this: the Clinton campaign isn’t looking at this rationally at all. They hear that the math makes it impossible, but they just can’t face reality. I think Hillary actually thinks she can campaign her way to the nomination, when the grim truth is that she can only get there with a spectacular Obama flame-out. And no, the Wright thing doesn’t even come close to qualifying. She’d need a Spitzer-like shocker.

If Obama doesn’t win the election in 2008 I’ll be blaming Hillary, not dirty GOP tactics or Nader. Obama should be traveling overseas and meeting with foreign ministers. Our nightly newscasts should show Obama being greeting by adoring throngs of Europeans, and Asians, and Africans. He should be meeting with soldiers and hammering-home his economic plan. Instead he spends his time fighting-off Hillary while abiding by his own pledge to run an honorable campaign. Meanwhile, Hillary runs the least-honorable campaign by a Democrat in recent history, and cries foul every time Obama defends himself.

I’m losing patience. Others are too.

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