If Super Tuesday is the day McCain walked away with the Republican nomination, it may mark another turning point in Obama’s favor. The logic runs thus:
Both McCain and Obama are attractive to Independents. In future primaries where Independents are free to vote in any primary they choose, those voters will congregate to Obama because McCain no longer needs their help. This same effect may have worked in the opposite direction in New Hampshire, where Independent’s turned their attention toward McCain, and away from Obama, after Obama’s win in Iowa just before. This may not explain the gap in the polling vs. the results, but with a 2.5% margin of victory for Hillary, it could well have been the difference.
Obama polls more strongly than Clinton when matched against McCain (and maybe all the GOP candidates, though I can’t cite a source for that). We need him to be the candidate.
Tags: Politics
